Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
